Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.928849 3.537193 4.219781 5.039344 5.993379 7.065533 8.358094
2025-03-23 2.016898 2.770322 3.709597 4.953931 6.544807 8.495064 11.049157
2025-03-30 1.405800 2.166610 3.207094 4.706389 6.778590 9.504332 13.315896
2025-04-06 1.074166 1.832111 2.955208 4.692715 7.253814 10.820192 16.073852
2025-04-13 0.835954 1.566235 2.730500 4.649780 7.642943 12.020556 18.760446
2025-04-20 0.720635 1.463830 2.724614 4.915929 8.494928 13.940803 22.625917
2025-04-27 0.614203 1.348578 2.670165 5.083667 9.196994 15.685556 26.366887
2025-05-04 0.540901 1.275692 2.670880 5.334134 10.046978 17.718832 30.699180
2025-05-11 0.447612 1.139448 2.529530 5.308031 10.418228 19.006969 33.945406
2025-05-18 0.354998 0.979901 2.312079 5.104241 10.445183 19.715089 36.288587
2025-05-25 0.277355 0.832189 2.088345 4.849222 10.339123 20.171714 38.226655
2025-06-01 0.232546 0.751405 1.989724 4.825398 10.653773 21.373517 41.502936
2025-06-08 0.196400 0.684287 1.912026 4.840159 11.057002 22.790040 45.302982
2025-06-15 0.164505 0.619212 1.826456 4.825055 11.398801 24.122815 49.055186
2025-06-22 0.128770 0.530011 1.662407 4.606446 11.294447 24.604645 51.291088
2025-06-29 0.108467 0.482554 1.595101 4.601401 11.637256 25.966403 55.244071
2025-07-06 0.090390 0.435736 1.519053 4.562178 11.898306 27.182907 58.997316
2025-07-13 0.084278 0.430899 1.561024 4.825120 12.861216 29.875172 65.753159
2025-07-20 0.075960 0.414395 1.565273 4.990593 13.615888 32.192433 71.910295
2025-07-27 0.070501 0.407753 1.598414 5.237251 14.582943 35.013288 79.221213
2025-08-03 0.059675 0.373034 1.535225 5.211615 14.897621 36.480973 83.904515
2025-08-10 0.047404 0.325159 1.416781 5.011063 14.762820 36.973148 86.631410
2025-08-17 0.036687 0.278392 1.289014 4.760103 14.470444 37.092857 88.587077